Shi Dinghuan | Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is an important goal of the energy revolu
Former State Council Counselor and former Chairman of the Chinese Renewable Energy SocietyShi DinghuanexistThe first "Tsinghua Wudaokou Carbon Neutral Economy Forum”middleIt was mentioned thatAchieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an important goal of the energy revolution, and it is crucial to China's sustainable development and the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. He stated that the "dual carbon" target has sparked widespread discussion across the country, and the academic community has conducted extensive research on this topic, laying a solid foundation for achieving the "dual carbon" target. Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a crucial goal of the energy revolution, concerning China's sustainable development and the building of a community with a shared future for mankind; it is a systemic project and a strategic task. For the energy industry, this means developing new, green energy sources, with clean and renewable energy being the most important. He introduced China's research and achievements in new energy development and utilization over the past few decades. To date, China's major renewable energy industries have become the world's largest, strongest, and most innovative industries. In particular, the photovoltaic industry is the most internationally competitive among the country's strategic emerging industries. Shi Dinghuan The following is a transcript of Shi Dinghuan's speech: Distinguished guests, teachers, and students, Good afternoon! I am very happy to be back at my alma mater today to participate in the Tsinghua PBC School of Finance Carbon Neutrality Economics Forum.I've already given a brief overview of my resume. After graduating from the Department of Engineering Physics at Tsinghua University, I worked at the grassroots level. Later, I returned to Tsinghua and worked at the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology for five years before joining the State Science and Technology Commission. At the State Science and Technology Commission, my work mainly focused on innovation in industry and energy, including initiatives like the Torch Program in high-tech zones, and of course, a lot of international cooperation. Later, I became a State Council Counselor, and in recent years I've also been involved in work with social organizations, including the China Renewable Energy Society. I currently chair the Expert Committee of the Energy Investment Committee of the China Investment Association. Last year, the organization launched the "Zero Carbon China Action," an initiative proposed even before the "dual carbon" target was set. At the time, the concept of "zero carbon" elicited mixed reactions from society; some actively supported and agreed, while others opposed it, arguing that we hadn't even achieved low carbon levels yet, and that proposing "zero carbon" was premature. In particular, many conventional energy and traditional energy entities did not express participation or support.922 SpeechAfter that, everyone studied diligently, fully understood, and worked hard to achieve the "dual carbon" goal, so the situation changed significantly.There is widespread discussion across the country about "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peaking," and many places have taken action. In particular, the academic community has conducted in-depth discussions and research in this area. All of this has laid a solid foundation for us to further achieve our "dual carbon" goals in the next 10, 20, and 30 years. My main focus todayFrom the perspective of new energy sources, achieving carbon neutrality is a crucial task for the energy sector.A key goal of achieving carbon neutrality is to establish a new type of power system based on new energy sources. I believe this is a crucial objective in achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and in realizing an energy revolution. In June 2014, at the sixth meeting of the Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed…Four revolutions and one cooperation"The new energy cooperation strategy sparked heated discussions across the country at the time. However, what were the goals of this revolution? What were the key moments? What was the timeline and procedures? Who were the main forces driving this revolution? Who were the targets? At the time, these questions were not clearly defined; everyone was discussing them, but nothing was clear. After General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the major goals became clear. The objectives for the energy revolution over the next 10, 30, and 40 years became clear, the strategic direction became clear, and the timetable became clear. Now, we are implementing these goals through a reverse-forcing mechanism, and General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized that China is true to its word and will go all out with unwavering determination to achieve these goals." Because achieving this task is indeed...Issues concerning China's sustainable development and the building of a community with a shared future for mankindTherefore itIt is a massive systemic project for economic and social development, and a strategic task.It involves every aspect of life. From our discussion today, carbon neutrality and carbon peaking have already touched upon every aspect of society—every place, every society, every industry, even every enterprise and every individual. In the future, how can we shift to green consumption and green living? That requires us to use green energy. For many years, we've talked about green, but the goals of green have not been very clear. Today, when we talk about green, the first thing is that energy must be green. If you continue to use fossil fuels for the next 10 or 20 years, then that's not green energy, not truly green. A very important indicator of green is clearly defined: energy. Because energy is a crucial foundation for economic and social development; without energy, we have nothing. Therefore, the future energy shift will be primarily based on new energy sources. The main components of new energy arerenewable energyThis also includes nuclear energy. Within China's new energy sector, nuclear energy is an important carbon-free energy source, beneficial for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. However, a major problem with the development of nuclear power is safety. Therefore, we are very cautious and careful, and cannot develop nuclear power on a large scale. We can only use more advanced safety technologies when conditions permit. Just a couple of days ago, it was reported that the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor technology, primarily innovated by the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology at Tsinghua University, belongs to the fourth generation of nuclear safety technology. With the support of relevant Chinese government departments, this technology has been included in the country's major scientific and technological innovation projects and has now reached criticality, moving towards providing power generation. Such technology is a crucial support for achieving non-fossil energy and reaching carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the future. However, future energy systems cannot focus solely on nuclear energy, as nuclear safety and other more complex issues arise. What enriches our resources even more are various renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, hydro, biomass, low-temperature energy, and ocean energy. These energy sources are an important part of our renewable energy system and are abundant resources. These resources are inexhaustible, low-carbon, and zero-carbon. While there are differences across the country, such energy is ubiquitous. Unlike fossil fuels, which are distributed across "resource-rich areas" and "resource-poor areas," leading to situations like "coal transported from the north to the south" and "coal transported from the west to the east," and oil requiring large-scale transportation, renewable energy is available in every region to varying degrees. This is the best energy source for humanity. If all of humanity truly achieves a carbon-neutral era dominated by renewable energy, the past conflicts over oil resources will cease, which would be a great benefit to global sustainable development. How is the development of new energy sources progressing now?Are there the conditions to support peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality? New energy sources, as non-fossil energy, were developed and applied on a small scale in the 1950s and 60s, but at that time, prices were very high; oil prices were low, and conversion efficiency was also low, making large-scale commercial application impossible. In the early stages of reform and opening up, renewable energy in China could not yet enter the overall commercial energy system; it could only be used for demonstration projects in some remote areas, rural areas, and places with suitable conditions. At that time, the research on new energy policies was based on the principle of "long-term prospects and immediate effectiveness," hoping to use it in areas with special needs. Therefore, solar power generation and biogas were widely used, especially in rural areas, and small hydropower was already quite common. However, solar, photovoltaic, and wind power technologies were basically not yet mastered. When I was in charge of six development programs at the State Science and Technology Commission, and new energy was included in the national plan, the basic goal for wind power development was 50 watts. A wind turbine that could power a light bulb with 50 watts was the direction of national research. At that time, there were no other technologies or greater demands. Of course, this technology, with its 50-watt and 100-watt outputs, solved the electricity problem for the yurts of many herders in Inner Mongolia, and also solved the electricity problem for watching television. This achieved great results, and we developed our technology based on this foundation. Our photovoltaic power generation was also very expensive, and there were only a few factories in China, with only one in Kaifeng and one in Ningbo, producing only a few hundred kilowatts, which made large-scale application impossible.After truly entering this century, especially after the passage of the Renewable Energy Law in 2005, which formally established renewable energy as a legal entity, we have achieved tremendous development in the renewable energy industry. Today, China's major renewable energy industries have become the world's largest, strongest, and most innovative industries. This isn't just our own claim. I've also met with many foreign scholars, including experts from Germany and the United States, and research institutions at American universities. Their research has led them to the conclusion that...China's renewable energy industry, especially the photovoltaic industry, is not only the world's largest, but also has a strong innovation capability.It is on this basis thatThe renewable energy photovoltaic industry has now developed into the world's largest. The entire photovoltaic industry chain starts with polysilicon materials, from material manufacturing to pulling polysilicon into wafers, slicing it into cells and modules, and finally to applications. Currently, eight or nine of the world's top ten companies in all these stages are Chinese, meaning China has mastered the core technologies and main players in the entire industry chain. The State Council has explicitly stated that the photovoltaic industry is one of my country's strategic emerging industries with strong international competitiveness, and it has developed rapidly in recent years. In the past, the efficiency of renewable energy was quite low, starting in the 1980s with levels of 10%, 11%, and 12%. Replacing these levels with 10% required considerable effort. However, now the conversion efficiency of photovoltaics has generally increased to over 20% in industrialized applications, with many industries reaching internationally leading levels of 24% or even 25%, and are now striving for even higher targets. Every 1% increase in conversion efficiency can significantly reduce costs and generate more electricity. Therefore, with technological innovation and progress, the industry continues to develop. Today, the photovoltaic industry has become the world's largest industry. Each year, besides its own domestic applications, it supplies equipment and components globally. Approximately 40% of its annual production capacity is used in the Chinese market, while about 60% is supplied to the global market. In other words, China's photovoltaic industry has contributed not only to China's development but also to the world. The photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly. Many people haven't seen it firsthand. I just visited Tongwei in Chengdu a couple of days ago. The owner of Tongwei used to be a fish farmer and fish feed manufacturer; he only entered this field within the last 10 years, and now it has become the world's largest photovoltaic company. I saw the newly built [project] in Meishan a couple of days ago.Photovoltaic cell workshopThis workshop is 380 meters long and several tens of meters wide, entirely equipped with domestically produced automated equipment, and boasts high production efficiency. A single enterprise with a capacity of 15 GW is unprecedented globally, and it was built in just over a year. Therefore, a significant characteristic of renewable energy is its relatively short construction period and low risk. Once the factory is built, the produced batteries and modules can be quickly transported to the construction site for installation, making the installation process even faster. A 100-megawatt photovoltaic power plant can be built in just a few months. In the past, building a thermal power plant with a capacity of several hundred thousand kilowatts might have taken several years—seven or eight years. But now, a photovoltaic power station can be built in a few months to a year, with a capacity of several hundred thousand kilowatts. Therefore, the future development of this industry is phenomenal. This industry doesn't use water. In the past, thermal power plants used a lot of water. In many water-scarce areas, there was no water and they could only rely on wind power. Now that photovoltaic power stations have developed, apart from using water for cleaning, they don't need water at all. So it is truly a sustainable industry. I am full of hope and confidence in the development of this industry. wind power industryIn recent years, China has developed rapidly and has now become the world's largest wind power market in terms of installed capacity. This year, I visited some offshore wind power manufacturers, all of which are private enterprises. Their innovation capabilities are very strong, and they have now achieved a single unit with a capacity of over ten megawatts. As I mentioned earlier, 30 or 40 years ago, a wind turbine was 50 watts; now it's hundreds of kilowatts, several megawatts, or even over ten megawatts. Offshore wind power is now being produced to capacity of over 15 megawatts, with a single unit exceeding 15 megawatts. The blades of these turbines are now over 100 meters long. Visiting the production workshop was quite a spectacle. Therefore, it has become a new major manufacturing industry for China, supplying the entire offshore wind power sector. In the future, photovoltaic and wind power will be able to manufacture [materials] in addition to generating electricity.Green HydrogenEspecially with the potential for green hydrogen production at sea, the development speed is very fast. Based on what I just mentioned, this industry, which has developed in recent years, can fully support us in achieving carbon peaking in the coming decades. Furthermore, this industry can attract more traditional energy industries to transform and shift their production. Currently, the national installed capacity is approximately 500 million kilowatts, and it is projected to reach 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030 and several billion kilowatts by 2050. There is still a significant gap in current capacity, so there is substantial room for development. This is also a very important development direction for the transformation and shift of the traditional fossil energy industry in the future. To achieve the goal of peak carbon emissions in the future, our industries must first further strengthen innovation.Looking ahead to the next 30 or 40 years, and considering the 40 years of development we've witnessed firsthand, the next 40 years will undoubtedly see even faster progress than the past 40 years. This development will certainly rely on innovation. All the young people here at Tsinghua University should make significant contributions to the development of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality technologies. Recently, I've seen many young scholars selected by the US National Academy of Sciences, many of whom come from Chinese universities. They have made significant contributions in various fields, particularly in basic sciences, and these achievements provide a solid foundation for future industrialization. Therefore, I hope our students, especially those at Tsinghua University, can see the future goals of dual-carbon development and strengthen their innovation efforts in this area. Secondly, we must increase the application of new energy sources.The goal is to better integrate renewable energy production capacity with industry, construction, transportation, and people's lives, enabling more factories, buildings, railways, highways, and even rural areas to rely more on renewable energy generation to meet their energy needs. This is the essence of projects like "PV+" and "Wind+". Energy storage is indispensable for these projects because renewable energy is unstable. Therefore, energy storage has developed rapidly in recent years. Besides traditional pumped-storage hydroelectric power, there is now compressed air energy storage and various physical and chemical energy storage technologies, all developing rapidly. Wind, solar, and energy storage represent a crucial future direction for the energy system. At the same time, we will develop the digitalization of energy.How can so many energy systems be integrated into a large-scale, safe, green, low-carbon, and economically viable energy system? This is impossible without digital systems, artificial intelligence, big data, and the internet. In the future, our digitalization and digital economy must be closely integrated with energy transformation; this is a crucial direction for fundamental innovation. Today, I mainly wanted to introduce the following points: our new energy sources will definitely make a positive contribution to supporting China's dual-carbon development goals. I also hope that many of you young students here will make even greater contributions to achieving this goal through innovation. Thank you!