Member of the Party Committee and Deputy General Manager of Zhejiang Energy GroupYang JingdongexistThe first "Tsinghua Wudaokou Carbon Neutrality Economic Forum”middleIt was mentioned that achieving the "dual carbon" target requires balancing economic development and energy security.He stated that natural gas will continue to increase its share in the future energy structure, but it will also reach a growth plateau, which will help control overall carbon dioxide emissions to a certain extent. However, after reaching peak carbon emissions, natural gas, as a fossil fuel, will need to undergo a radical transformation. Following the proposal of its "dual carbon" goals, Zhejiang Province has vigorously developed renewable energy, promoted the transformation and upgrading of traditional energy sources, and actively conducted research on key technologies, effectively implementing national strategic goals.
Yang Jingdong
The following is a transcript of Yang Jingdong's speech:
Good afternoon, everyone! It's a great pleasure to have the opportunity to share and exchange ideas with you all as a representative of a traditional fossil energy company. I've listened to many presentations from experts and guests today, and many of them have mentioned that achieving the goals of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality" is a systematic project, which I wholeheartedly agree with.The "dual carbon" goal is notA simple task with a single objective.To achieve the "dual carbon" goal, we must take into account low carbon emissions, safety, and cost.。To achieve low carbon emissions, we must also consider energy security and reliable supply, as well as economic viability.cost.In achieving the goals of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality," the choice of path and the control of pace are crucial.My view is that in the process of achieving the "3060" target, the proportion of fossil energy, including coal and oil, has already peaked, and its share may continue to decline, with a significant decrease.However, natural gas may experience relatively rapid growth in the future, and after a considerable period of time, it may reach a peak and plateau before slowly declining.Why do I say this? It's related to the country's energy structure. China's annual primary energy consumption is approximately 4.94 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, emitting 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Of these 4.94 billion tons of primary energy, coal accounts for 57%, and its carbon dioxide emissions exceed 75%.Although renewable energy has developed rapidly in recent years, it only accounts for about 16% of primary energy consumption, which is still a relatively low proportion.According to a widely accepted view, by 2030, the proportion of renewable energy will rapidly increase to 25%, which means there will still be 75% of energy available.Because in this process, primary energy consumption will increase slightly with economic growth, and 75% of energy will still rely on fossil fuels, which cannot be discarded all at once.What kind of option are we among fossil fuels?Among fossil fuels, natural gas is the cleanest and lowest carbon fossil fuel, with a carbon intensity of just over 40% that of coal and two-thirds that of oil.Therefore, among the remaining 75% of fossil energy, choosing to reduce coal consumption, control oil consumption, and allow natural gas to grow is beneficial to the overall control of carbon dioxide emissions in a certain stage.Specifically,Natural gas prices fluctuate, and I believe they can be mainly divided into two phases.The first stage is the peak of natural gas growth.。I divided it intoFour partsBecause energy consumption is divided into four categories: electricity, transportation, industry, and construction.First, electricity。The power sector undoubtedly needs to vigorously develop renewable energy, but this will bring a problem: renewable energy is often an unstable power source, which leads to peak-shaving challenges once it enters the grid.Who will regulate peak demand?Chemical energy storage is developing rapidly, but due to the energy density problem, a fundamental solution of orders of magnitude has not yet been found. Therefore, it may be better to provide hourly peak shaving capabilities.For daily, monthly, or even quarterly peak shaving, pumped storage or thermal power peak shaving may be better options now.In this process, the power sector should vigorously develop renewable energy, while reducing coal-fired power generation as much as possible and increasing natural gas power generation.Second, industryThe natural gas sector accounts for approximately 40% of carbon dioxide emissions, while industry is another major contributor, accounting for about 37%. The industrial sector's primary focus is electrification; a large amount of end-use energy consumption needs to be electrified, and electrification should be pursued as much as possible. Furthermore, the government has been implementing coal-to-gas conversion for some time and will continue to promote it. In areas like Zhejiang, where all industrial boilers under 35 tons were phased out and converted to gas before last year, larger industrial boilers will likely either be electrified or converted to gas in the future to reduce emissions.Third, transportationElectric vehicles have made significant progress, but some modes of transportation, such as ships, especially ocean-going vessels, are still difficult to replace with batteries, at least for now. I think the best option is to use liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a power source. We don't need to wait for the new technology to mature; replacing it now can reduce emissions. Furthermore, natural gas is not only cleaner but also lower in carbon emissions than fuel oil, which is crucial for transportation, as fuel oil for ships emits a lot of sulfur.Fourth, architectureIn the past few years, the large-scale coal-to-gas conversion in northern China has eliminated scattered coal use, which has brought great benefits to improving the weather and reducing emissions. This work should continue.From these four sectors, natural gas will play a very significant and positive role in the emission reduction process. As for when natural gas growth will peak, and what that peak will be, it depends on the development speed of renewable energy and the progress of technologies such as CCS and energy storage.futureSecond stageThis refers to the reduction after the peak is reached. This part needs to decrease because the proportion of renewable energy will already be very high at that time.For natural gas, the most important thing is to "revolutionize itself".Regardless, it is still a fossil fuel and emits carbon dioxide, so achieving near-zero carbon emissions may be achieved through "natural gas power generation + CCS". Furthermore, natural gas facilities can be blended with hydrogen; natural gas units can be modified to burn hydrogen-blended fuels, or even all-hydrogen, which would be revolutionary.at last,Let me explain how we did it.Zhejiang Energy is a provincial state-owned enterprise with the most complete range of energy sectors in our country. It possesses both traditional fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, as well as renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind power, solar power, and nuclear power. The "3060" target presents us with significant challenges, but also opportunities.For us, firstly,Vigorously develop renewable energyThe goal is to quadruple the installed capacity of renewable energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, striving to reach 20 million kilowatts. Zhejiang New Energy (600032) was listed in Shanghai in May this year.Second, the transformation and upgrading of traditional energy.Zhejiang Energy has always attached great importance to the transformation and upgrading of traditional energy sources. It took the lead in carrying out ultra-low emission technology in the country. This ultra-low emission technology won the first prize of the National Science and Technology Progress Award in early 2018. It is now actively researching and carrying out flexible transformation of coal-fired power plants, as well as CCS demonstration projects, energy storage power plant construction, and researching key technologies for hydrogen energy.Regarding natural gas, considering that there will be a long period of growth in the future, we need to vigorously strengthen infrastructure construction and conduct research on pipeline hydrogen blending, etc.
