Wang Yaqi | Unveiling the Global Ripples: How EU ETS Influences Chinese Exporters

Wang Yaqi, a professor at the School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics, shared her insights entitled "Unveiling the Global Ripples: How EU ETS Influences Chinese ExportersThe article.

Wang YaqiCurrently a professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics. He holds a PhD in International Economics from the National School of Development, Peking University, and a Bachelor's degree in Mathematical Economics from Wuhan University.

Wang Yaqi

In her presentation, Professor Wang Yaqi pointed out that the research focuses on the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU Emissions Trading System).EU ETSThe cross-border spillover effects of , emphasizing global trade linkages (global  import-export linkagesHow to transmit price shocks from the EU carbon market to Chinese exporting companies? This article, based on transaction data from Chinese customs at the enterprise level, covers...“enterprise–product–destination–years”Export records, and withEU ETS Phase II（2008–2012The core analysis interval is defined as ). In terms of identification strategy, this study employs...Shift-Share（SSIV) framework, utilizing the enterprise in the base period (2005–2007Using the export structure as a weight,EU ETSCarbon price changes are mapped to the firm level.“Exposure to the impact of European carbon prices”This is used to identify the causal response of export behavior. Empirical results show that...EU ETSRising carbon prices significantly increase both the quantity and total value of Chinese exports to Europe, while the average export price remains largely unchanged, indicating that the spillover effect is primarily reflected in quantity expansion rather than price increases. Further analysis reveals that the overall effect is mainly driven by internal marginal costs within firms.within-firm marginThe expansion contribution of carbon prices in the EU is relatively small, while the entry and exit of firms and the reallocation of market share among firms have relatively minor effects. To explain this phenomenon, Professor Wang Yaqi, within a simplified counterfactual calculation and general equilibrium framework, points out that rising EU carbon prices push up the overall price index in regulated markets, making imported goods relatively more price-competitive, thereby enhancing the relative advantage of Chinese export companies in the EU market, and creating a chain reaction within the trade network.“ripple effect”This study suggests that policy shocks from large carbon markets not only affect the cost structure and market equilibrium of the region, but may also reshape the export performance and external competitive environment of companies in other countries through trade channels, providing new empirical evidence for understanding the global spillover effects of carbon pricing policies.

Chen Bo

Professor at Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyIn his comments, Chen Bo believed that the paper was based onEU ETSTaking the spillover effect of carbon prices on China's exports to Europe as a starting point, this paper discusses cross-border spillovers from a trade perspective.spilloverThe topic and the awareness of the problems align with the current trends in international trade research. Methodologically, he affirmed the authors' use of detailed enterprise-level data for identification and emphasized that the paper further decomposes export responses into quantity and price dimensions, facilitating a discussion of the underlying competitive effects and transmission channels. He also pointed out that since the paper has already discussed the policy implications, it could further echo the EU's recent carbon border adjustment mechanism (…).CBAMInstitutional evolution, such as [the evolution of] systems, can enhance policy dialogue; at the document level, it can be more systematically embedded.Copeland–Taylor and subsequent matters“Pollution Safe Haven”He also cited classic debates to strengthen the theoretical framework. In addition, he cautioned that attention should be paid to...EU ETSIn addition to the potential impact of other major market shocks and macroeconomic factors (such as changes in the US and Japanese markets and exchange rate fluctuations) on China's export behavior, it is recommended to incorporate more control variables and conduct comparisons with the US./Japan's placebo test (placebo testAlternatively, supplementary methods such as dynamic panels can be used to more effectively highlight [the features].EU ETSIt has specific effects and enhances robustness.