Li Quan │ Analysis of the Behavioral Codes of Trump's Security Team and Sino-US Relations
On the morning of December 8, 2018, the second parallel session of the academic seminar "International Trade Relations and the Restructuring of Global Economic Governance," entitled "The Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of International Trade Friction," was successfully held at Tsinghua University. Experts and scholars from various fields participated in the conference. This conference was hosted by the Center for International Finance and Economics Research (CIFER) and the Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Research at Tsinghua University. Professor Li Quan of the School of Political Science and Public Administration at Wuhan University attended the conference and shared his academic research entitled "An Analysis of the Behavioral Codes of Trump's Security Team and Sino-US Relations" (presentation attached).
Professor Li Quan received his Ph.D. in Political Studies from Texas A&M University in the United States. He previously served as an assistant professor at the University of Florida and is currently a professor at the School of Political Science and Public Administration, Wuhan University. His research interests include political behavior in the U.S. judiciary, congressional behavior and the distribution of interest groups, the presidential decision-making system and foreign strategy, and election prediction. His research methods are primarily quantitative, including game theory, textual analysis, and mixed-effects models. Professor Li's courses include the U.S. Constitution, the U.S. political structure, the U.S. judicial system and governance, U.S. public policy, U.S. public administration, U.S. interest groups and political parties, and foundations of comparative politics.
Professor Li analyzed Trump and key members of his National Security Council using Walker's behavioral code method. The analysis revealed significant disagreements within Trump's team at the beginning of his term regarding their respective belief systems. These disagreements narrowed somewhat in 2018, most notably with Defense Secretary Mattis and Secretary of State Pompeo adopting positions closer to Trump's. Based on the behavioral code analysis, and extending the 2×2 game theory model, Professor Li analyzed six scenarios of Sino-US interaction and competition. The results showed that, given the specific strategic preferences of the United States, five of China's six strategic responses could ultimately lead to cooperation; however, if one side adopts a bullying strategy while the other only adopts a reassurance strategy, the two countries will fall into conflict.
On-site PPT:
