Liu Tao | The Rise of the Renminbi in Asia: A Network Analysis

Recently, the 2020 Academic Symposium on International Trade Disputes and Globalization Restructuring, jointly organized by the Center for International Finance and Economics Research (CIFER) of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University and the Center for Cross-border Digital Capital Research (IDC) of the Institute of Fintech at Tsinghua University, was held.2020 International Conference on US-China Trade Disputes and Reforms in GlobalizationThe meeting was successfully held online.Liu Tao, Lecturer, School of International Economics and Trade, Central University of Finance and EconomicsAttendAnd share with collaboratorsProfessor of Economics at the University of California, DavisHu YongtaiWang Xiaosong, Professor of Economics, Renmin University of ChinahostTitleThe rise of Renminbi in Asia: a network analysisThe Rise of the Renminbi in Asia: A Web Analysis》The article.

Liu Tao

Liu Tao, male, holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Davis. He is a lecturer at the School of International Economics and Trade, Central University of Finance and Economics. His main research areas include international finance, the international monetary system, and the internationalization of the RMB. His research findings have been published in [Journal Name].Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Emerging Markets Review, China Economic JournalAcademic journals, etc.

Liu TaoIn her presentation, the teacher stated that the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic have hindered the development of economic globalization, but regional cooperation and integration have been continuously improving in recent years, with East Asia, led by China, being the most representative example. So, will regional economic integration promote related financial integration, and even advance the widespread use of the RMB within the region?Teacher Liu and her collaboratorsThe article uses SWIFT cross-border settlement currency data from October 2010 to February 2018 to conduct an empirical study on this issue. Using the network analysis method proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009), Professor Liu and his collaborators analyzed the spillover effects among the world's major currencies (US dollar, euro, pound sterling, Japanese yen, and renminbi) and found that: (1) the euro and the US dollar have strong spillover effects in the global market, while the renminbi has a weak influence in the global market; (2) the renminbi has a strong spillover effect in the ASEAN+3 region; and (3) the influence of the renminbi in Asia mainly comes from China's influence in the real economy rather than its influence in the financial market.

Ma Chang

Assistant Professor Ma Chang of Fudan University's Fanhai International Finance Institute commented on Professor Liu Tao's article, praising its unique contribution. Professor Ma noted that the article's detailed analysis of the RMB's importance in cross-border transactions using SWIFT data was commendable. However, Professor Ma also offered some observations and suggestions: First, it's necessary to consider whether the RMB has become an international currency. If not, given its regional advantages in East Asia, the extent of financial liberalization within that region needs to be explored. Second, the impact of changes in the Euro needs to be considered: the effects are mutual, and further quantitative analysis is required. The status of the US dollar is also open to discussion. Third, if the index of China's capital market opening is included, what is the relationship between RMB application and capital market opening? Finally...Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance Ziguang Chair ProfessorCTRG Chairman Ju Jiandong also offered his opinion: China has capital controls, but countries like Malaysia do not. Could a capital control index be added?

International Monetary System Thematic ForumParticipating guests and scholars