Shi Huimin | The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Trade

Recently, the 2021 "International Trade Disputes and Globalization Restructuring Academic Symposium" was successfully held online.Shi Huimin, Associate Professor at Renmin University of ChinaAttendThe Eighth Thematic Sub-Forum on the Pandemic and Regional EconomyAnd shared with collaborators (see below) the title:The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on TradeThe article "The Trade Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic".

Article author

Shi Huimin received her Ph.D. from Ohio State University in 2012, specializing in international trade and economic growth. She is currently an Associate Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the School of Economics, Renmin University of China, and a recipient of the Renmin University of China's "Outstanding Scholar Support Program" for Young Scholars (Level A). Several of her academic works have been published in [Journal Name/Institution].Journal of Comparative Economics, World Economy, International Review of Economics and Finance, Empirical Economics, Review of Development Economics, Economic Modelling, Emerging Markets Financeand TradeHe has published in domestic and international peer-reviewed academic journals such as *World Economy* and *Economic Theory and Management*, and has led or participated in numerous National Natural Science Foundation of China projects, National Social Science Foundation of China projects, and university-level research projects. Several policy commentary articles have been published in media outlets such as VOXEU, Guangming Online, *China Times*, *Social Science Daily*, and CGTN, and his internal reports have received approval from provincial and ministerial-level leaders. His current research focuses on non-tariff trade barriers, global value chains, and the impact of trade policy on corporate finance.

Shi Huimin

Teacher Shi HuiminThe article, shared in collaboration with its authors, describes how a gravity-like approach was used to study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected imports from China by various countries in 2020. The authors found that a country's own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from China, suggesting that the negative demand effect outweighed the negative supply effect of the pandemic. On the other hand, Covid-19 deaths in a country's (excluding China) major trading partner led to increased imports from China, partially offsetting the country's own impact. The net effect of shifting from pre-pandemic conditions to another major variable, assessed at 2020 averages, was that, on average, imports from China decreased by nearly 10%. Significant heterogeneity also exists. For example, the negative impact of the pandemic disappeared when the authors limited their sample to medical supplies, and this negative impact was significantly mitigated for products exported under processing trade with a high "work-from-home" share or high contract strength, as well as capital goods. The authors also found that deaths and lockdowns in the preceding months tended to increase current imports from China, partially offsetting trade losses during the same period, suggesting that trade was not only "destroyed" but also partially "delayed."

(Compiled and translated by volunteers from live stream content, with paper abstracts provided by guests)

Zhang Longtian

Zhang Longtian, Assistant Professor at the School of International Economics and Trade, Central University of Finance and Economics, offered four comments on the article.First, Professor Zhang believes that the article primarily uses empirical analysis and factual statements to prove the author's point, but lacks theoretical explanations to illustrate its operational mechanism. Second, the article assumes that the COVID-19 situation in China gradually improved after March 2020, thus reducing its impact on the supply side. However, the reality is that the recurring outbreaks of the pandemic continued to significantly impact the supply side in the following period, making this assumption somewhat flawed. Third, the article uses the mortality rate to represent the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, but Professor Zhang believes this data is insufficient; adding more factors, such as the infection rate, would be better. Fourth, the article devotes too much space to discussing the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic. Perhaps the author could further explore questions such as the impact of the pandemic on oil-exporting countries and the mechanisms underlying changes in China's import volumes. All of these points warrant further discussion.

(The volunteers compiled and wrote the script based on the live stream content.)

Special Topic on the Pandemic and Regional EconomyGuest scholars